青藏高原及邻区未来地震活动性趋势数值分析

区域中长期地震危险性数值分析研究,需要对其初始构造应力场有所了解,但目前以及未来一段时期内仍无法直接观测到深部孕震层区域的应力场状况.本文首先基于岩石库仑-摩尔破裂准则,利用青藏高原及邻区百年历史范围内的强震信息,来反演估算该区域的初始应力场.然后,考虑区域构造应力加载及强震造成的应力扰动共同作用,重现了历史强震的发展过程.然而对于初始应力场的反演估算,本文仅能给出区域其上下限的极限值,并不能唯一确定.因此,采用Monte Carlo随机法,进行大量独立的随机试验计算,生成数千种有差异的区域初始应力场模型,且保证每种模型都能令历史强震有序发生,但未来应力场演化过程不尽相同.最后,将数千种模型在未来时间段内的危险性预测结果集成为数理统计结果,据此给出了区域未来的地震危险性概率分布图.初步结果显示未来强震危险性概率较高地区集中在巴颜喀拉块体边界及鲜水河断裂带地区.     

高分六号宽幅相机在轨几何定标及精度验证

高分六号宽幅相机能够实现单相机成像幅宽优于800 km,对大尺度地表观测和环境监测具有独特优势。在轨几何定标是光学遥感卫星几何处理的关键环节,直接影响影像的几何质量。本文充分考虑高分六号宽幅相机超大视场的畸变特性以及多谱段的成像特点,提出宽幅相机在轨几何定标方法,采用基于探元指向角的几何定标模型补偿宽幅相机系统误差,通过绝对定标和相对定标方法联合估计各波段的内外定标参数。利用Landsat 8影像、资源三号DSM为参考数据,对宽幅相机进行绝对定标处理,再利用ASTER GDEM为参考数据进行相对定标处理,其几何定标结果表明,高分六号宽幅影像绝对定位精度在3像素左右,内部几何精度能稳定在1像素,且波段间配准精度在0.3像素以内,表明在轨几何定标后高分六号宽幅影像几何质量得到了明显的提升。     

海南省连片贫困地区农户致贫风险分析

农村贫困与减贫是世界性难题,也是中国各级政府高度重视并着力解决的重大民生问题。基于农户及致贫风险的文献梳理,从区位、社会和劳动力3个要素维度构建了农户致贫风险分析的二元Logistic回归模型。采用484户农户问卷调查数据,分析了海南省连片贫困地区农户的致贫风险,提出有效减贫和持续发展对策。研究发现:① 海南连片贫困地区生态环境良好但贫困发生率较高,家庭劳动力较充裕但受教育水平较低,子女教育支出负担重,因病因残致贫比例较高,女性务工人口较多,农户自身脱贫致富的发展动力不足。② 海拔高度200 m以下、男性户主、拥有残疾或患病成员、务工人口比例低、女性务工人员占比高、以及单位劳动力供养学生数高的农户具有更大的致贫风险。③ 研究未发现女性户主、少数民族、低受教育水平户主、大型规模家庭有更高的致贫风险,女性成员比例、抚养比等因素对农户贫困影响较小。激发农户内生动力、大力发展特色化和规模化农业、增加农户就业机会、加强针对农民工、女性务工人员和病残群体的社会保障等减贫政策制定实施是实现脱贫攻坚目标的重要途径。     

干旱区地表温度和热岛效应演变研究——以宁夏沿黄城市带为例

宁夏沿黄城市带位于宁夏东北部，不仅是干旱地区地理研究的重点区域，也是宁夏经济发展的核心区域。基于2000—2018年的MODIS地表温度、土地覆盖类型以及植被覆盖率数据，通过计算热岛比例指数 (URI)，利用Mann-Kendall非参数检验及Sen’s斜率估计法，对宁夏沿黄城市带近20 a白天和夜间的地表温度（LST）和热岛效应时间变化进行分析。结果表明：（1） 近20 a来，宁夏沿黄城市带大部分地区[WTBX]LST变化不显著，但在植被覆盖率增加区域，白天LST显著减小而夜间LST显著上升；植被覆盖率减小区域与之相反；夜间LST[WTBZ]变化幅度强于白天。（2） 宁夏沿黄城市带的热岛效应通常在白天较弱、在夜间较强；白天和夜间时刻的城市热岛效应在一年内呈现不同的季节变化特点,白天春冬较强，夜间夏季较强；过去近20 a，宁夏沿黄城市带白天热岛效应呈现稍微减弱趋势，夜间热岛效应呈现稍微增强趋势，但变化趋势均不显著。（3） 从植被覆盖率和地物类型两个影响因素的研究表明，植被覆盖率是影响地表温度变化的重要因素，城建区与郊区主要地物温差的改变是城市热岛强度变化的重要原因。从长时间序列变化的角度详细分析干旱区城市热岛的特征和变化原因，可为干旱区城市热岛带来的环境问题治理提供参考，也为研究干旱区热岛提供了借鉴。     

居住迁移对居民健康的影响研究进展述评

进入城市时代以来,居住环境与居民健康的联系愈发密切,尤其在“流动性"增强的大背景下,居住迁移对居民健康的影响问题受到广泛关注。论文结合知识图谱分析和文献研究法,系统评述居住迁移影响居民健康问题的最新进展。研究发现：① 近15 a来,该领域的文献数量逐年增多,关注度持续上升;文献空间分布主要集中在发达国家,但不同地区的研究内容存在显著差异。② 主要研究对象由“同质性群体”向“异质性群体”转变,从“一般性群体”向“特殊群体”转变;研究方法由数理统计向混合研究、综合应用转变。③ 研究视角经历“人口迁移—个体健康”“居住迁移—环境—个体健康”与“迁居轨迹—环境演变—个体健康发展”等3个演变阶段。④ 近期研究重点有：迁居行为与儿童健康,迁居时空特征与身心健康,住房生涯与身心健康,邻里环境、累积剥夺与健康发展等。结合以上分析,提出如下建议：注重“整合性”分析;关注城市内部迁居行为和多次迁居轨迹对居民健康的影响;扩大迁居引发的“环境”因素(如居住隔离、社会分异、职住空间错位等)研究;更多关注迁居对二代流动人口儿童健康的影响,侧重对非正规居住空间如“城中村”等的研究。     

全球盐湖卤水锂矿床的分布特征及其控制因素

盐湖卤水锂资源占全球锂矿总储量的78%,是全球最重要的一种锂矿床类型。研究并总结了全球盐湖卤水型锂矿床的分布特征、物质来源以及成矿规律,并提出了盐湖卤水型锂矿床成矿模型。研究发现,卤水型锂矿床的形成均受控于新构造运动、封闭-半封闭的低洼汇水盆地以及极端干旱的气候条件等因素,所有卤水型锂矿床均与新生代地质水热活动有密切关联,成矿物质特别是锂元素主要来源于火山喷发岩,经热泉水、温泉水以及大气降水等的水-岩作用后迁移富集。     

Development and evaluation of a storm surge warning system in Taiwan

An operational storm surge forecasting system aimed at providing warning information for storm surges has been developed and evaluated using four typhoon events. The warning system triggered by typhoon forecasts from Taiwan Cooperative Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Experiment (TAPEX) has been executed with two storm surge forecasting scenarios with and without tides. Three numerical experiments applying different meteorological inputs have been designed to assess the impact of typhoon forcing on storm surges. One uses synthetic wind fields, and the others use realistic wind fields with and without adjustments to the initial wind fields for the background circulation. Local observations from Central Weather Bureau (CWB) weather stations and tide gauge stations are used to evaluate the wind fields and storm surges from our numerical experiments. The comparison results show that the accuracy of the storm surge forecast is dominated by the track, the intensity, and the driving flow of a typhoon. When the structure of a typhoon is disturbed by Taiwan’s topography, using meteorological inputs from real wind fields can result in a better typhoon simulation than using inputs from synthetic wind fields. The driving flow also determines the impact of topography on typhoon movement. For quickly moving typhoons, storm forcing from TAPEX is reliable when a typhoon is strong enough to be relatively unaffected by environmental flows; otherwise, storm forcing from a sophisticated typhoon initialization scheme that better simulates the typhoon and environmental flows results in a more accurate prediction of storm surges. Therefore, when a typhoon moves slowly and interacts more with the topography and environmental flows, incorporating realistic wind fields with adjustments to the initial wind fields for the background circulation in the warning system will obtain better predictions for a typhoon and its resultant storm surges.     

Brittleness characteristics of tight oil siltstones

Rock brittleness directly affects reservoir fracturing and its evaluation is essential for establishing fracturing conditions prior to reservoir reforming. Dynamic and static brittleness data were collected from siltstones of the Qingshankou Formation in Songliao Basin. The brittle–plastic transition was investigated based on the stress–strain relation. The results suggest that the brittleness indices calculated by static elastic parameters are negatively correlated with the stress drop coefficient and the brittleness index B₂, defined as the average of the normalized Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio, is strongly correlated with the stress drop. The brittleness index B₂, Young’s modulus, and Poisson’s ratio correlate with the brittle minerals content; that is, quartz, carbonates, and pyrite. We also investigated the correlation between pore fluid and porosity and dynamic brittle characteristic based on index B₂. Pore fluid increases the plasticity of rock and reduces brittleness; moreover, with increasing porosity, rock brittleness decreases. The gas-saturated siltstone brittleness index is higher than that in oil- or water-saturated siltstone; the difference in the brittleness indices of oil- and water-saturated siltstone is very small. By comparing the rock mechanics and ultrasonic experiments, we find that the brittleness index obtained from the rock mechanics experiments is smaller than that obtained from the ultrasonic experiments; nevertheless, both decrease with increasing porosity as well as their differences. Ultrasonic waves propagate through the rock specimens without affecting them, whereas rock mechanics experiments are destructive and induce microcracking and porosity increases; consequently, the brittleness of low-porosity rocks is affected by the formation of internal microcrack systems.     

Morphological and molecular diagnoses of Polydora brevipalpa Zachs,1933(Annelida: Spionidae) from the shellfish along the coast of China

Shell-boring species Polydora brevipalpa Zachs, 1933 is redescribed based on morphological observations and molecular approach for future unambiguous identification. Genetic distance analyses showed that the interspecific polydorid variation(16.7%–25.6%) was at least 15 times higher than the intraspecific one(0.2%–0.9%) based on the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I(CO1) gene sequences of polydorids. However, 18 S rDNA variation pattern demonstrated a rather narrow barcoding gap, with the interspecific polydorid variation(0.5%–5.6%) being very close to the intraspecific one(0.0%–0.4%). As such, the CO1 gene exhibited better DNA barcode for identification of polydorids than the 18 S rDNA gene because of the su ciently large barcoding gaps. Analysis of molecular variance results based on CO1 gene sequences showed that most variations in sequences(97.79%) lay within groups of adult worms and egg capsules rather than between them. This indicated that egg capsules from Crassostrea gigas(Thunberg,1793) in Ningbo and Nantong were related to the adult worms from Patinopecten yessoensis(Jay, 1857) in Dalian, and both of them belonged to P. brevipalpa. This result was further supported by parsimony network analysis, which showed that egg capsules collected from dif ferent localities and adult worms shared a single haplotype. This study was the first to report both P. brevipalpa infestation on C. gigas and to utilise the known CO1 sequences of the adult polydorids to validate morphologically unidentified egg capsules or early larvae. P. brevipalpa was most possibly brought to Chinese waters through transportation of Pa. yessoensis brood stock from Japan.